Presentation to the Brattleboro Selectboard

BRATTLEBORO SELECTBOARD:
15 May 07
Post Oil Solutions Proposes Peak Oil Task Force

INTRODUCTION

Thank you, madam chair. As some of you know, I’m a community organizer with Post Oil Solutions.

Post Oil Solutions is a citizen’s group largely based in the greater Brattleboro region. Our purpose is to help our community prepare for a post oil world, by developing and implementing strategies and projects that will allow it to become more sustainable and self-sufficient, less dependent upon petroleum-based imports for our basic needs. As we see it, we are entering a world where the burning of fossil fuels will be increasingly unacceptable (because of global warming) and more expensive and less available (because of peak oil).

More than anything else, however, Post Oil Solutions is a collaborative organization, one which believes very much in the virtue of working with others—cooperatively, constructively--to address the serious issues we will be facing shortly. It is in this spirit that I appear before you this evening.

What I propose to do tonight is threefold: first, I will speak about peak oil; then, I will then outline how some other municipalities around the country are responding to peak oil; and then, finally, I will offer a proposal as to how the town of Brattleboro, and the region that it’s the hub of, might take pro-active steps to prepare this community to successfully transition into a post oil world.

I’m not going to provide you with a full-blown presentation of peak oil tonight because that would require a much longer session; however, this is certainly something we can arrange for the Board at a future time should you desire.

Rather, tonight I wish to briefly make the case for the growing reality of what we know as, “Peak Oil.”

While another critical and very much related issue, global warming, has finally begun to be recognized and acted upon in our society, the same cannot be said for peak oil. As yet, we don’t have our Al Gore. As a people, we remain largely unaware of peak oil—much as we were in the 70s and 80s and 90s about global warming—and this, even though peak oil represents even more of a serious and potentially catastrophic threat to human society. This is especially true for those of us who live in highly industrialized, technological societies, such as the United States, which are so absolutely dependent upon petroleum for its lifeblood.

To begin with, then, let’s first make sure we’re all on the same page when we talk about peak oil.

It should be noted that the peaking and decline of oil is not controversial. It will occur. This is agreed by almost all who are familiar with the subject. Peak oil has already been observed in individual oil fields and countries, most of which have already reached or gone past their peaks.

The US is a case in point. We peaked in 1970 at 10 million barrels of oil a day, and now produce only 5 million barrels a day. Once the world’s leader, we have gone from being a major export nation to one that is heavily dependent upon imports, especially from countries that are politically volatile and unstable, and, in a number of instances, not our friends.

Moreover, world oil discoveries peaked in the mid-1960s. According to Exxon-Mobil, 1987 was the last year that we discovered more oil worldwide than we burned. In recent years, we have been extracting about 4 barrels of oil for every new barrel we discover. This means that, not only are we not discovering any new significant fields of oil, the present ones have either peaked, or will do so shortly.

What is controversial, therefore, is not the peaking, itself, but rather, when the actual peaking will occur for the world. The estimates vary from the present time to 2040, with the majority of predictions falling somewhere between now and 2015. The major reason for this variation is the uncertainty around the oil reserves in middle-eastern OPEC countries.

A second matter that needs clarification is that, all too often, people misunderstand the term, “peak oil” to mean the immediate demise of petroleum. This is not accurate. For when we talk about peak oil, we’re not referring to the end of petroleum, as such, although this will happen eventually. In fact, when peak oil arrives, half of the world’s supply will still be in the ground.

Rather, the problem is that the remaining half will no longer be the cheap, easy to extract, “sweet crude” that has been the engine force of our highly industrialized civilization over the last 150 years.

So what do we mean by the term, “peak oil?”

• When petroleum peaks, it will have reached the point where the production rate reaches its zenith and then levels off, to begin  an inexorable decline. This might not be a problem if demand was also to decrease at the same time. But at the present, the demand for oil is increasing each year, certainly in the Western countries, but now also in 3rd world, emerging industrial nations, such as China and India. Thus, with peak oil, you have the situation where demand will begin to outstrip production, and petroleum, and all of the products that are derived from it, will be increasingly scarce and expensive.
• Additionally, with petroleum becoming more difficult to get out of the ground, the ratio of the energy required to extract oil becomes increasingly unfavorable to the amount of energy that is realized from its extraction. Coupled with the fact that oil will be less abundant and available, this fact will make petroleum and its products even more expensive.
• In summary, then, given that oil will be increasingly less available, but in greater demand, and that it will be increasingly expensive to extract but of lower quality, we arrive inevitably at the following dilemma. That oil, as an energy source, cannot be depended upon to do the hundreds of things that we have taken for granted during our lifetimes, in order to live the kind of lives we do.

As the forgoing suggests, peak oil will have enormous consequences for our society, effecting all areas of our existence. This is because so many of the things that make up life as we know it to be—all that is manufactured and driven by technology—are completely dependent upon oil. I challenge you, for example, to look around this room, or on the streets when you return home tonight, or in those very homes once you arrive to find anything that could exist without fossil fuels (besides your loved ones, that is). That is why it is no exaggeration to say that peak oil will challenge us to meet our basic needs--around energy, transportation, business and industry, health care and pharmaceuticals, culture, education, government infrastructure and public services, retail trade, the global economy, the financial system.

And, oh, did I mention FOOD, or, more accurately, our industrial food system, which provides us with a daily diet that is totally dependent on fossil fuels? The average meal of most Americans, for example, travels anywhere from 1500-2000 from field to table. VT imports at least 90% of its food, much of it from places like CA and Mexico. What makes this situation particularly problematic as we approach and enter peak oil is that this industrial agriculture can only function through the availability of cheap, abundant petroleum. From fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and heavy farm machinery, to processing, packaging, refrigeration, and transportation, it is no exaggeration to state that ours is a diet that is saturated in oil. Just consider this one fact: at present, it takes 10-15 calories of fossil fuel to produce one calorie of the food we eat. Without petroleum, we’re in serious trouble.

In short, as the story of our daily diet underscores, Western Civilization--as this highly industrialized, technological society that has existed for the last 150 years, but most especially since the end of World War II—could never have existed without fossil fuels. We’re completely dependent upon the burning of this energy for our way of life.

Along with the rest of the world, we will have to face the question of how we’re going to take care of ourselves and to meet our basic needs when we can no longer depend upon petroleum to do this job for us. Confronting this issue will force us to accept two fundamental, but very much related facts:

• One, that if we’re to successfully transition into a post oil world, we will need to make choices that are more sustainable and self-sufficient, more conservational and modest, more cooperative and collaborative. Quite simply, we will no longer be able to afford the constant economic growth, highly mobile, consumerist life style of an oil based civilization.
• And secondly, in order to accomplish this more sustainable transition, we will need to seek solutions to the world we are entering on a local and regional level. We cannot depend on Washington, or the multi-national corporations to do this job for us. The end of oil means that we can no longer be dependent upon an economy where our needs are met from all the goods and services we largely import at the present time. We’ll be on our own. We’ll have to learn to be much more self-sufficient and community-oriented, to be a people who come together to increasingly take care of ourselves and our neighbors to meet our basic needs.

How real is Peak Oil? How serious is our situation at present? Let me conclude my comments about peak oil by quoting from 4 sources that underscore why I have requested to appear before you tonight.

The first is from Matthew Simmons, who is Chairman of Simmons & Co. International, a Houston-based investment firm specializing in the energy sector, and an advisor to the Bush Administration on oil policy. This past Oct 26, at the conference for the Assoc. for the Study of Peak Oil in Boston, Simmons noted that, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, world oil production was just over 85 million barrels a day in December 2005. Since then, and up to late October, it had been absolutely flat at 84 million. At the same time, world oil consumption had risen consistently from 77 million barrels a day in 2001 to above 85 million in late 2006. Simmons concluded, and I quote: “If you basically have another 6 to 10 months of that decline lasting, then I think for certain we would look back and say, ‘Guess what? We actually reached a sustainable peak in crude oil production in December 2005.’”

The second source is the so-called Hirsch Report a copy of which I’ve provided for each of you. The Hirsch Report is a study of peak oil commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy in 2004 and carried out by the Science International Corporation, a Fortune 500 company specializing in engineering and scientific analyses for the U.S. military and other government agencies.

The Summary begins, and I quote: "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented (my emphasis). Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking" (my emphasis).

What is significant here is that, by "action," the authors mean "crash programs," that is, nationally mobilized all-out emergency efforts on the scale of American manufacturing projects in World War II. The analysis then concludes that the U.S. would escape significant economic and material disruption only if mitigation steps are initiated 20 years in advance of peak oil. Anything short of this will mean a significant shortfall between supply and demand, a shortfall lasting for many years.

The third source I wish to cite is the Feb 2007 study of peak oil done by the federal government’s General Accountability Office (GAO), entitled, Crude Oil: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production, a copy of which I have also supplied for each of you. Echoing the Hirsch Report, the GAO “Highlights” the following in its report, and I quote, “Key alternative technologies currently supply the equivalent of only about 1% of US consumption of petroleum products…(It’s estimated) that even by 2015 they could only (supplant) the equivalent of 4% of projected US annual consumption. In such circumstances, an imminent peak and sharp decline in oil production could cause a worldwide recession.”

Finally, I would like to quote our newly elected US Senator, the Honorable Peter Welch, who shortly after taking office in January, introduced House Res. #12 about peak oil, the final paragraph of which stated, and I quote, “Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the same magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the “Man on the Moon’ project to address the inevitable challenges of ‘Peak Oil.’”


Such is the enormous gravity of peak oil that, at least at first, the problem can seem to be too daunting and over-whelming, one that we can’t begin to imagine facing (or wanting to do so). And so, much as it has been with global warming, our tendency is to ignore it, or even deny its existence. After all, with a problem this big, what can we do about it?

Fortunately, there are increasing numbers of citizens and municipalities, both in this country, as well as the rest of the world, that recognize not only that peak oil is real, but who are also taking steps at “timely mitigation,” in order to assist their communities to successfully transition into the post oil society we are inevitably becoming. There are many groups like Post Oil Solutions, for example, throughout the land, including a number in our own state that are part of the Vermont Peak Oil Network.

More importantly, there are also about a dozen or more municipalities in the United States that have either undertaken, or are in the process of beginning efforts at dealing with peak oil. Places like Franklin, NY, San Francisco, Oakland, Santa Cruz and San Jose, CA, Seattle WA, Bloomington, IA, Ashland and Portland, OR, Austin and Dallas TX, As diverse as these municipal efforts are, they generally have the following important characteristics in common that I would especially like to bring to your attention and to underscore:

• One, they involve a partnership of government and citizens to assess the issue and work on mitigation steps;
• Two, they are action oriented, and have developed programs to deal with peak oil through a task force study group; and
• And three, they are focused on comprehensive, across the board issues—food, housing, transportation, energy, health care, municipal services, and the like.

I’d like to specifically mention one of these municipalities--the city of Portland, Oregon--where citizens and their governing body, have not only educated themselves about peak oil, but are also responding pro-actively to prepare their community. On the recommendations of their Peak Oil Task Force, for example, the Portland city council adopted a resolution to cut fossil fuel use by 50% by 2032 (i.e., 25 years). You will find in your handout several documents that I have provided you about what has been done in Portland


In the spirit of these initiatives, therefore, I want to strongly urge the Brattleboro Selectboard to engage in a similar process, by seriously considering the following proposal, or some variation thereof.

Basically, what I am proposing is that the Brattleboro Selectboard appoint a Peak Oil Task Force, one whose voice would be respected by the general community and would be made up of a diverse representation of the town/region; and that this Task Force be a regional body, consisting of people both within Brattleboro and the larger community that it is the hub of.

I then propose that this Task force work in two stages

• The initial purpose of this Task Force should be to educate itself about Peak Oil, for the purpose of then reporting back to the Board within 6-9 months with its findings about peak oil.
• I suggest that this study of Peak Oil by the Task Force be made as public as possible with presentations, talks, films, and the like, well advertised and made available to the larger community.
• Finally, when the Task Force reports back on its findings, it should include a recommendation as to whether or not the Task Force found sufficient reason for the Board to pursue an effort to develop mitigation scenarios that the Selectboard and community could initiate in an effort to pro-actively deal with Peak Oil’s anticipated consequences.  

THE SECOND STAGE: DEVELOPING A TIMELY MITIGATION PLAN:

• Should the Board then decide that there is sufficient cause to develop mitigation plans, it would direct its Task Force in such a manner, requesting that the latter return with plans and recommendations within one year, providing interim reports during the year.
• In order to develop a comprehensive plan, the Task Force would also be expanded at this point into several sub-committees, that would include representation from all the vital sectors of the larger community--government, business, agriculture, social services, education, health care, and so forth so. Each of these sub-groups would be charged with the responsibility of working on and then reporting back within 12 months with a work-in-progress, ongoing plan of the mitigating steps they would advise their particular area of concern and expertise to initiate in order to prepare for peak oil.

It should be noted that the effort I’m proposing would not occur in a vacuum. Brattleboro and the larger, surrounding community is not starting from square one in coming to grips with what is needed in a post oil society. As we have discovered in our work with Post Oil Solutions, there are a growing number of citizens in this town and region who are not only increasingly aware of peak oil and global warming, but also of the importance of acting in sustainable, collaborative ways to meet the challenges of a post oil world.

Furthermore, even if the town and region are not where we would ideally like to be when peak oil officially arrives, the fact that we would be heading down the path we need to be on, and thus would be a lot further along then we would have been otherwise, and that--better yet--are then in a position to move even faster, because we’re not starting at square one—is all to the good.

You would also serve as an example for the larger region that we are part of; an example and inspiration for other communities who are already beginning to move in this pro-active direction; an example that could pay off with other similar efforts that would eventually combine with our own to provide greater sustainability, community, and security.

In short, you would provide the necessary leadership that we need at this unprecedented historical moment.

One final benefit should be noted, and this, perhaps, is the most important of all. I would preface this by reminding you that the ancient Chinese word for crises consists of two characters, one for danger, and the other for opportunity. On that note, I would suggest to all of you that, while peak oil presents us with enormous challenges, it also represents an unprecedented opportunity for our community to come together, in the true spirit of community, to work in a collaborative, cooperative, mutual aid fashion, to create the new world we are now entering. We have a choice at this moment in time—to let the post oil world wash over us, dictating what will become of us (with all the dire, unpleasant consequences that this suggests), or becoming pro-active, instead, taking our individual and collective lives into our hands, and helping to shape the world we want—not only for ourselves, but especially for our children, and their children.

I would like to thank the Board for allowing me this time to address you. I would only add in closing that, should you decide to pursue the issue of peak oil in the manner I’m suggesting, I would gladly make myself available to the Board to help in any way that I could. Thank you.